Arsenal Women Weekly Newsletter September Mailbag

Hi Tim, historically most WSL transfers tended to be free transfers where a player would be out of contract with Club A and move freely to Club B, with only the occasional transfer fee paid. I have noticed this summer though, there seems to have been an increase in WSL transfers where clubs are buying players with transfer fees (across the league, not just Arsenal). Do you think this is the beginning of the entire transfer model moving to as it is in men's football, where most transfers will involve a purchase fee being paid, or are there specific reasons which might make this summer a one off with future summer windows going back to largely free transfers?

Alastair Wood

I still think free transfers will be common for a while yet but there are signs of movement to greater fees paid at the elite level. But the game still doesn’t make enough money for large fees to be commonplace. Really, we are not totally in a place where women’s football is profitable, we are in a place where it is losing less money at the elite level, we are on a road to sustainability and greater revenue but we aren’t there yet.

We are seeing more clubs insert release clauses into contracts, for example, (Aston Villa do this with most of their bigger players now). There was a report last week from FIFA that showed £1.78m in total was spent on fees in the WSL last summer, with £1.03m spent in Spain. We are also seeing, for the very top players, the first suggestions of clubs not wanting contracts to run down.

For instance, Barcelona were completely unwilling to sell Keira Walsh last summer having paid a world record fee for her but this summer, it seems as though they are willing to consider at the right price (still a large price) given she has one year left on her deal. We will see more of those types of decisions being made at the sharp end, especially for clubs not backed by men’s Premier League clubs.

A question from a couple of months ago and more pertinent with the transfer window shutting on Friday and record amounts being spent on transfers. Which of the other 9 times are likely to challenge the hegemony of the current top 3? Liverpool, with a record signing? Man Utd buying Terland and bring back Grace Clinton? And a subsidiary question is, do you think you'll see the big three drop more points this season because of the increased competition? Jeremy Cunnington

I honestly don’t think we’ll see anyone challenge the top three (four if you count United too) this season, the challenge for the rest is to finish 5th, maybe 4th as Liverpool managed last season. But the trend every season is that the team that gets the closest to the top four usually has a fair bit of luck, as the underlying data shows. Liverpool had a goal difference of +8 last season but their expected goal difference was -1. So while Liverpool were excellent, they were also lucky. We saw that with Spurs in 2021-22 and Villa in 2022-23 too when they finished 5th.

22 games is a small sample size and when that sample size expands into a second season, say 30 games or so, you start to see that fortune even out a little. I think that was also true of United when they finished 2nd in 2022-23, they were good but they had some fortune along the way and that evened out in 2023-24. City were unlucky to finish 4th in 2022-23 and that course corrected on their way to 2nd last season.

Goal difference is also a revealing factor of how close the chasing pack actually is and Liverpool, Villa and Spurs have been miles behind the big three in this respect in their strong seasons. However, to your second point, yes, the top clubs will drop more points because of the quality coming into the rest of the league. Last season was the first ever time that the champions lost more than twice. On an individual basis, the chasing pack can beat the top teams over 90 minutes and I expect that trend to continue, certainly.

I have a kind of loose theory of progress tactically which is that as teams get better they are more combative out of possession and are more proactive in possession. We tend to do better against these types of teams(last season versus the other "big 3" ) because of Jonas's emphasis on structure with and without the ball. It looks like the teams were playing this season both in the WSL and the Champions League may suit this mould a bit better than teams in the aggregate before. Teams in the WSL also seem to be moving more towards game models where pressing and more complex ideas in possession are being implemented. Do you think this will mean that historically Jonas's principles of play will "pay off" more this season and in further seasons relative to the past? Or have there been indications in the first games of this season that he may be looking to tweak his principles anyway (thinking about the fact that we attacked with 6 in the last line against rosenborg at some points and I havent seen that before). Michael Chanda

I think this is such a good observation. I have been doing some research on other WSL teams ahead of the season and Leicester’s new manager, Amandine Miquel, is promising a more attacking style. Brighton’s new coach, Dario Vidosic, says he wants Brighton to have more possession and be more enterprising even against the bigger opponents. Liverpool’s big signing this summer has been a playmaker in Olivia Smith. Tottenham have already moved to more of a possession style. It remains to be seen whether the likes of Brighton and Leicester make good on their promises when the real season is under way but it does suggest teams in the middle of the table are moving away from putting 10 players behind the ball.

On your second point about Eidevall’s principles of play, I think Mariona and Kafaji are a departure, certainly, because neither are ‘structure’ players. I asked Jonas on Friday whether he wanted a wide playmaker and identified Mariona or whether Mariona became available so he decided to play with a wide playmaker and he strongly hinted it was the latter. But I am happy that he and Arsenal had the flexibility to pivot to quality and not to be too rigid when a player like Mariona became available.

Lotte Wubben-Moy was arguably Arsenal's player of the season last season, but Laia Codina has made a strong case for a starting role during round 1 of qualifiers. When both (plus Leah) are healthy, how will Jonas select one of them to start while keeping the other happy? ML

Lotte was last season's player of the season, but her recent injury has given Codina an opportunity to shine in defence. Amongst Leah, Laia, Lotte and Katie we seem to have real competition for places in central defence now. Which players do you think provide us with the strongest pairing currently? Clive B

On the question from ML, I am minded of an answer Emma Hayes gave to a similar question a couple of seasons ago. ‘My job is not to keep players happy, it is to win games.’ That is a truism of all managers at the elite level with big squads. Eidevall said something very similar to one of my questions last season. ‘You can’t prioritise keeping players happy with team selections, it doesn’t work.’

I think a door has opened for Codina much in the way that it opened for Lotte last season and, for my money, Codina cannot come out of the team until she does something to be removed. Of course, it is a long season and nobody is going to play every game. But Codina and Lotte have the advantage of being able to play on the left and the right of a defensive pairing.

This was of huge importance for Lotte when Leah and Rafaelle were the first choice pairing because it made her first-choice ‘back-up’ for both positions and it meant she played a lot of minutes prior to last season. However, at the moment Codina is performing next to Leah and while that is the case, she has to stay in the team. I don’t have any personal preferences on pairings at the moment, I haven’t really identified issues with any of them yet.

Mariona and Foord seem to have developed a really strong partnership already. It's very obvious that Mariona is looking up to pick out Foord, and Foord has been able to finish those opportunities really well. I always expected they would play on the same wing, but going forward, how can we play them together? And who then would rotate with them? I've been impressed so far with the Mariona x Maanum x Foord line, as well as the McCabe x Maanum x Mariona triangle and Little x Foord x Fox triangle. James W

The reality is that we are going to need all those combinations to work at different points of the season. I think that was a teething issue last year, that new partnerships were forming and a little undercooked. That ought to be less of an issue this year. And just as with the centre-halves, the fact that Foord is comfortable on the right as well as the left will be a big advantage to her. When she plays on the opposite flank to Mariona, it allows her to be more of a finisher of moves, as we saw v Rangers, rather than a starter of moves, as we saw last season.

But I am also excited to see what Beth Mead can do with Mariona on the opposite side. Mead is Arsenal’s most reliable provider of goals and assists (it remains a source of bafflement to me that people continue to under appreciate this) and I think with Mariona taking on a lot of the playmaking burden, it allows the player on the right to be at the sharp end of moves.

I also think Mariona on the left will help McCabe and Catley at left-back because her inclination to move in-field creates a more obvious overlap opportunity. Arsenal’s season is going to live and die on the prospect of being able to change the team without the partnerships being overly impacted, that is the sweet spot and one a coach really ought to reach in his fourth season in charge.

I find Jonas to be a very vanilla football mind, which lends me to wonder if his wonderbread vision of football meshes well with the flavorful footballing talent that is Rosa Kafaji? Do you think he will lean on players that play more of a vanilla game the way he thinks it, or will Rosa get a fair opportunity? Atliengunner

I think what Jonas is is an excellent ‘whiteboard’ tactician, I think he has a really good grasp of what opponents do and is really strong at solving issues in-game. There is no doubt he is excellent at setting up a structure and a team. The question is certainly how far he can marry that with the flair and individuality you will need at points in the season to win the biggest prizes.

The signings of Kafaji and Mariona are a step in the right direction there. I have few doubts over Mariona at all, she is so good that a) Eidevall has unquestionably changed his usual approach to wide play to accommodate her talent. She is 28 and has won it all, that is a coach’s dream because there isn’t much you have to do with the players herself, you pick her, let her do what she is good at and back fill any structural issues that might give you.

Kafaji is different because she is younger and rawer. Understandably, we all love a new signing and we accept their flaws far more readily in those early games. But Kafaji does have to work on her decision making a little, as you would expect given she is 21 and already missed significant time in her career due to a bad injury in her teens. She needs a little coaching and nurturing and that will mean she won’t start every game just yet. How Jonas deals with a talent like this will be fascinating because there is going to be some give and take, she will frustrate on occasion but, nurtured correctly, she can be devastating. I haven’t seen any evidence of Eidevall stunting an elite level playmaker yet.

How worried are you about the lack of clinical finishing against the Rosenborg low block ahead of the WSL season? I found the dominance in the final third, number of chances, hitting the bar three or four times etc more an issue of luck than skill - so wasn’t too concerned, but I know some are? Clearly there’s still work to do with decision making when the box is so crowded, but based on the performance I feel cautiously optimistic that we’ll cope better than last season - am I missing something? Gem

I think it depends on what you think the bigger issue was against low blocks last season, creativity or finishing. If you think it was creativity, there are plenty of encouraging signs in pre-season that Arsenal have some answers to that. If you think finishing was the bigger issue, then your anxiety won’t have been abated by Saturday.

My own view is that it was a mixture of both. I am with you that, on an isolated basis, the issue seemed to be more to do with luck and probably the best low block we will play all season. However, we did see Arsenal squander a lot of chances in the friendly at Southampton last week. I think if Arsenal are creating a greater volume of chances, that will lessen the impact of wayward finishing but I am not certain the issue around finishing has gone away.

Two of Arsenal’s summer signings were clearly bought to solve the creativity issue but they didn’t ‘import’ a killer in front of goal. I do think Russo is improving in this respect, not least because she is getting a greater volume of shots. Mead remains such an important player in this respect too because she creates and scores so many goals.

Are you expecting any further transfer deals to be done by Arsenal before the transfer window "slams shut"? Clive B

Eidevall has said quite publicly he would like one more and I think now that Arsenal are through the first qualifying round for the UWCL, that will copperplate the desire to add. But at the moment, I don’t have any information on who that might be or which position they might play. I will caveat that by saying I didn’t know anything about Cooney-Cross until deadline day morning last year, things change quickly in the final days of the window and you will see plenty of deals done across the league that haven’t been reported on yet. I certainly wouldn’t profess to know everything, I never have and I never will!

But currently my honest stance is that I don’t know the identity of any player Arsenal might add at this stage. I know people are talking about the possibility of adding Keira Walsh. If there was ever going to be movement on that, it was always likely to be this week given the size of the likely asking price. As Emma Sanders of the BBC has also reported, I believe Chelsea are monitoring. Players of that quality will always have options.

Additionally, I can’t promise to break anything Arsenal do this week, it’s my daughter’s first week at school which means my work hours will drop in the run up to Friday. I will try to stay across it but this week will be challenging for me on that front!

Couple questions-

1. When do you think Lia W will be starting again and how do you think she'll slot in with the rest of the midfield?

2. What are your thoughts on best starters for defense? I'm starting to really like Codina. Sara Gray

These are interesting questions but I think the upshot is that we have to get comfortable with the idea that there isn’t a set starting XI. There will be a core of players who will pretty much always start when fit, like Leah Williamson and Beth Mead. I still think if everyone is fit and Arsenal are playing in the Champions League final tomorrow, Walti starts in midfield for certain. In the short term, the form of Kyra Cooney-Cross means we have the luxury of not rushing Walti back from a big injury.

As with Codina, I think Cooney-Cross should stay in the team until she gives the coach a reason to take her out. We have seen in recent seasons that Little and Walti have had to manage aches and pains and we are probably coming to a stage where we can be a little kinder to them in terms of workload over the season. As I said above, I think Codina should stay in the team until she doesn’t perform but, at the same time, nobody is going to start every game this season.

Do you think Mariona's transfer was already sealed before Viv was released? Chris Humphrey

I think the timelines broadly matched up here. Mariona was a free agent which meant clubs outside of Spain were allowed to talk to her from January onwards. I believe that Manchester City were interested at the early stage but Arsenal were front runners from pretty early on as it became clearer that a new deal with Barca was becoming unlikely. I think Miedema and Mariona’s situations were pretty similar in that a new deal for either was unlikely and only became less likely as time drew on. This is speculation rather than information, but I imagine City probably knew there would be a chance of getting Miedema if Arsenal signed Mariona so everyone would end up happy! This happens a lot with transfers, sometimes it is a bit of a game of Tetris among competing clubs.

I am concerned about the lack of clinical finishing. In his Rosenberg post match comments Jonas explained about the lack of/the early subs (it could go to extra time) but I remain unconvinced that he will use the squad appropriately. By that I mean both effective subsitutions for the game and ensuring the players are up to speed if they are needed due to injuries/suspensions. Carol McCluskey

I touched on the finishing above but, yes, I still share that concern. Though if the volume of chances increases it ought to abate that issue. I think a fitter, sharper Beth Mead and an Alessia Russo now more intent on being at the sharp end of moves will move the dial in the right direction. It’s just a case of whether it moves the dial far enough!

On rotation, Arsenal averaged pretty much the same number of starting line up changes and substitutions as Chelsea in the WSL last season so I don’t think the willingness to rotate is an issue at all (and Chelsea had a lot of injuries too). The question is how well that rotation is handled, that is Eidevall’s big challenge this season, especially if Arsenal get into the group stages of the UWCL. We haven’t seen that yet through a mixture of injuries in previous seasons and because of Arsenal’s failure to qualify for the group stages last season, so the jury is certainly out.